Russia will not attack the baltics. Pabriks says that “finally, Russia woke .

Russia will not attack the baltics ” Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are considered among the most likely targets if Russia one day decides to risk an attack on the military alliance. Russia has many advantages in the Baltics. This view has become salient since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, when other nearby countries became concerned that they may be in Russia’s sights. This is not the time to provoke the Russians anymore because of the situation in “Even if it chose not to escalate to general war or conduct a wider attack on targets throughout Europe, Russia could continue limited attacks on lucrative NATO military targets. Logistically, it's a nightmare. The scenario begins with the Putin regime mobilizing as Russia's ally, Belarus, borders them to the South, while North is the Baltic Sea, a shallow and enclosed body of water where most littoral states can easily effect sea denial to others. For a brief period, Nazi Germany occupied the Baltic states after it invaded the Soviet Union in 1941. At the same time Baltic Russians specifically have very imperialistic and pro-Soviet mindset, generally speaking. Several incidents involving Russian vessels and suspected sabotage raise concerns among NATO countries, prompting calls for increased vigilance and a long-term strategy to address this evolving hybrid The three Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—have become increasingly well coordinated among themselves and with Poland, including in matters concerning their borders with Russia and Belarus: they restricted visas for Russian citizens in a concerted effort in late summer 2022, ahead of Finland, and have made efforts to jointly build fortifications along Since the 2000s, Russia has directed its energy flows away from the Baltic States by building up its own ports, terminals, and new pipeline systems on the northern Baltic and North Sea. Russians understand only strength. Lithuania's president declared a state of emergency, While the Baltics are direct neighbors of Russia, From this perspective, an eventual Russian attack on the Baltic states would not arise because of Russian interest in these countries per se, but rather due to the need to shift the power balance in the Baltic sea region during a larger-scale conflict with the West. Although the threat of nuclear war is not immediately apparent, the tension between Russia and the Baltics poses a significantly heightened risk to the outside world. If They did Invade I fully see NATO striking back. The most effective responses will involve coordination between governments , commercial technology companies and the news industry and social media platforms to identify and address If Russia wants to invade the Baltics, it theoretically would have to fight and kill NATO soldiers deployed there, not merely overrun small Baltic militaries. 3 Nevertheless, because the Baltic states have Russophone populations and were formerly part of Moscow’s empire, Russians consider them to have what can be described as limited or modified Tsahkna said Estonia’s government estimates that it could take “three to four years” for Russia to prepare a “test for NATO. Aged like milk, that one A rupture in a 730-mile cable linking Germany and Finland was detected Monday, raising suspicions that it may be the latest sabotage targeting the West as it clashes with Russia. while 2 years ago everyone were saying "russians are not that stupid to invade Ukraine". " defense provision according to which an attack against any signatory is considered to be an attack against all. The three Baltic states jointly announced on Jan. Since 2015, Western military planners have become seized of a possible Russian 'fait accompli' scenario in the Baltics, envisioning armored battalions rolling in and defeating NATO forces in Second, the entire principle of NATO deterrence rests on an interpretation of Article 5 which does not stand up to close scrutiny. 9Russia could attack a NATO country "within a three–to five-year period. troops are part of NATO’s Baltic rotational Two crucial undersea cables in the Baltic Sea were severed this week. " Putin will be hard-pressed to make Russia great again if he can’t scrape back a semblance of power in the Baltic. A Ukrainian military official warned Russia could attempt to invade the Baltic states. After Ukraine, the Kremlin's next targets could be Moldova and the Baltic countries, Belgian army chief Michel Hofman has warned. The Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - are taking one step closer to the Europeans with their upcoming electrical system swap. Ukraine launches largest attack of war so far, Kyiv claims. The Novgorod Russia is simply not prepared or properly positioned to execute a well-coordinated, conventional attack on the Baltics. If the west doesn't become scarred(or some other reason like interests) and simply ignores article 5, thus making NATO useless. Russia will actually attack the Baltic countries or not (Dempsey 2017). Patrols in the Baltic Sea are being stepped up in response to the cable damage Tsahkna did not accuse Russia directly. Germany's military has drawn up plans for "a conventional attack by Russia within five years," In January, a top NATO official gave a timescale of "the next 20 years. There’s no immediate threat of an attack from Russia to the Baltic countries, In theory an attack on the Baltics or Poland is a trigger for NATO Article 5. Doing so would make a vigorous NATO Given Russia’s reliance on ‘mass’ tactics, they could shorten this timeframe to one year, for example, by putting reserve officers and specialists into short-term training. NATO needs to invest in demining capability and ensure freedom of navigation is maintained throughout the Baltic Sea and its entry waters. Even the Russian minorities in the region prefer living under Estonia and Latvia over living in Russia proper. While the Nato treaty commits all allies to defend any member that comes under attack, the Baltic countries say it is imperative that Nato show resolve not just in words but with boots on the ground. 19, 2024, their intention to build a defensive line along their borders with Russia and Belarus. 14 hrs “being able to confront NATO with a stunning coup de main that cornered it as described above, an attack on the Baltics would instead trigger a prolonged and serious war between Russia and a “being able to confront NATO with a stunning coup de main that cornered it as described above, an attack on the Baltics would instead trigger a prolonged and serious war between Russia and a A leaked German defense ministry paper outlining the start of a full-scale Russian attack on the Baltic states and Poland — and thereby NATO — is artfully imagined. “Russia always measures the military might but also the will of countries to fight,” said Janis Garisons, state secretary at Latvia’s Defense Ministry. g. The news comes weeks after the German Intelligence chief's warning that Russia could be ready to launch an attack on NATO before the end of the decade. The cables, linking Finland to Germany and Lithuania to Sweden, were damaged in separate incidents, prompting suspicions of hybrid warfare. Russian military cadets take part in a rehearsal for a parade on April 23 in Saint Petersburg. There are however doubts about the effectiveness of this "Baltic line" in the event of a Russian attack, as the situation in the Baltic states and on the front in eastern Ukraine are not comparable. We also added the coordinates of military bases in Belarus, a vassal state of Russia, Recently, fears have erupted in the press about a possible Russian military action against the three Baltic countries and Poland, in reaction to the NATO announcement of the transfer of 4,000 NATO . [5] Nonetheless, Baltic territories and ports continue to serve as transit routes for Western goods that Russia imports. If you are not ready and willing to kill them, they will invade you and As a result, the battle is ever-changing, with Russians constantly trying new angles of attack and target countries like the Baltic nations identifying and thwarting those efforts. The tabloid referred to how Russia had rehearsed an attack on Norway, Finland, and the Baltic countries during its Zapad military exercise in 2017 and that Moscow has since Russia is acutely uncomfortable with its political isolation and military weakness in the Baltic theater and is actively seeking asymmetric and “hybrid” measures in order to compensate for its More recently, Russia has persistently used its military electronic warfare assets to trigger disruption in the Nordic and Baltic areas. Is it because Latvia and Estonia are mountainous while Ukraine is mostly plains? Times have changed. The Baltic states the narrow land corridor connecting the Baltics to the rest of Europe. According to the latest national (1) the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on each Baltic state; and (2) it lays out a range of policy recommendations for the Baltics, the EU and NATO. Lithuania has some distance (in Belarus and Latvia), giving it some breathing room. If Russia attacks, Poland and the Baltic States will attack St. energy-, cyber-, drone- attacks on the critical infrastructures and military bases). In fact, the narrower sense of ‘armed attack’ is one of the few ways in which Russia has Russian forces thwarted Kyiv’s counteroffensive last summer and have regained the initiative on the battlefield. Last week, Lithuania announced it had deployed mines and anti-tank obstacles such as metal “hedgehogs” and concrete “dragon’s teeth” on bridges connecting the nation to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. The West must not rule out the possibility that Russia might attack the Baltic states, says General Ben Hodges, former commander of the US ground forces in Europe, in an interview with LRT. Assessment of reasons why Russia could invade Baltic States and how it would be carried out. 3 While this effect may seem extreme, it is not completely unrealistic and is a The Baltic nations can mobilize populations with strong resentments of Russia, but they also have large Russian minorities that might not fight so enthusiastically against Moscow (or may become Moreover, as weak nations currently containing no foreign troops, the Baltics pose no potential threat to Russia. In short, Russia could grab the Baltics, but only at a cost vastly in excess of the value of holding onto them. Plus, like you said, Russia is not wanting to deal with NATO. According to him, Moscow would be able to With Russia waging war in Ukraine, Baltic leaders say there needs to be enough NATO-backed defenses in their countries to convince the Kremlin that the cost of any attack would be too high. If the Baltic states are not reliant on Russia for energy or compliant with their exports, Russia could face economic threats of more costly shipping and an overall Concept states, “In the event of a military attack, the entire nation will be involved in immediate defence (sic) and counterattack. ” Indeed, However, the potential negative consequences (political, economic, and military) of a conventional war in the Baltic make it relatively unlikely that Russia would choose to invade the Baltic states. These countries also have access to Baltic Sea. If you look at the history of the Russian Federation as well as Wars Russia has been in. Petersburg. This is how NATO conducted deterrence in 1949, and it’s how NATO does deterrence There won't be a Russian invasion in the Baltic's, unless NATO loses credibility. Let's be honest - the response will be just more sanctions. Russia has no designs on any NATO country and will not attack Poland, the Baltic states or the Czech Republic, but if the West supplies F-16 fighters to Ukraine then they will be shot down by The Baltic nations want this to factor into the Kremlin’s thinking, making the cost of an attack prohibitively high. Liberal diaspora Russians tend to be Russian-born recent migrants living in Western EU or USA. “The idea that we will attack some other country – Poland, the Baltic States, and the Czechs are also being scared – is complete nonsense. Russia takes pride in its resolve to suffer more than the adversary. " And with Russian forces committed in Ukraine and Russia's Kursk Oblast, Lithuania's blocking of bridges to prevent a Russian ground attack could come across as premature. This partly stems from historical experiences of Soviet occupation, and fears of something similar happening again. In practice, even NATO Article 5 isn't an automatic "Everyone's going to war" button. For the Baltics, survival means most importantly deterring Russian aggression Tensions escalate in the Baltic Sea as Russia increases naval presence and suspected hybrid attacks target undersea cables and navigation systems. Russia's satellite coastal territory of Kalingrad got completely surrounded by NATO when these countries joined NATO. How would Russia invade the Baltic countries? The Baltic fear that Russia may invade, or partially annex Baltic territory, if the opportunity arises is best voiced by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda who told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during their March 7, 2022, meeting in Vilnius, “ deterrence is no longer enough, and we need more defence here, because otherwise it Russia has clearly postured itself in response to NATO as though it can counter-balance or deter the alliance, however expert examination of Russia’s current military reveals it is not likely to The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so There's no scenario that doesn't lead to WWIII if Russia invaded and Russia knows it. The Baltic states – former Soviet colonies who are among Russia's most outspoken critics – fear they are facing an increasing threat of retaliation for their enthusiastic Nato membership and The risks of a Russian attack against NATO in the near future would rise dramatically if the US allows Russia to defeat Ukraine now, and the challenge of defending the Baltic States in particular could become almost Even with the Baltic states shielded by Article V, Putin’s Russia still has the will and the means to attack one or more of them. Authorities in Finland, Sweden, Germany, and Lithuania are investigating the incidents, with many fearing that Russia may be behind the attacks This is for those who think Putin will not attack Nato countries. Is NATO willing to carry out a naval blockade on the Baltic Sea? That is the question. . The defensive line will not include coastal defenses — Baltic coasts will be defended against the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet in other ways, such as anti-ship missile capabilities and sea mines. Currently, U. Here's What You Need To Know: Russia would need to size its invasion force to not only beat the local NATO forces in the Baltics but to fight the entire alliance and defeat a counter-attack. But he did leave by Peter Zeihan on August 20, 2024 *This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July. While the NATO treaty commits all allies to defend any member that comes under attack, the Baltic countries say it is imperative that NATO show resolve not just in words but with boots on the ground. Initial details are scarce. Yet defense policy, planning, and procurement are not done in a vacuum, but relative to the This will not dissuade Russia from taking such a step—there are no red lines in Russian strategy. published a concerning study suggesting that, given the size and depth of its ground war arsenal, Russia could quickly overrun the If Russia wants to invade the Baltics, it theoretically would have to fight and kill NATO soldiers deployed there, not merely overrun small Baltic militaries. 1 For Moscow, preserving the status quo means retaining and exerting its influence in the former Soviet republics other than the three Baltic states. Russia not to attack Poland, Baltics, Ukraine through Belarus TEHRAN, Nov. “Of course it’s a blow to have the Baltic Sea turned into a NATO lake. I think Putin, Honestly, I never expected Russia to invade Ukraine, I assumed Russia would Not all are ethnic Russians, the numbers include some Ukrainians, Belarusians, Tatars and others. Should the Americans decide to put a permanent force of troops in the Baltics, Vladimir Putin would cry foul and accuse the United States of further threatening Russia. I understand it’s a timed debate and there’s a lot going on and she Not sure. Since 2014 the relations between Russia and NATO has reached the levels of Cold War. That is, if the Baltics are not already wiped off the map while the NATO backup is STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF FAILING TO LIBERATE THE BALTICS If Russia is able to invade, occupy, and hold the Baltics while fending off a NATO counter-attack, NATO itself could collapse along with the foundations of Western security for the last 70 years. “A NATO and U. The Baltic nations can mobilize populations with strong resentments of Russia, but they also have large Russian minorities that might not fight so enthusiastically against Moscow (or may become Russia faces a multifront war and has to keep LARGE numbers of troops in Karelia, Ukraine, and the Baltics as NATO troops Russia's current military cannot sustain a multi front war. The political and military alliance has 32 members, including the U. It takes: 210 Purge 70 Transpolar 70 Navy 70 PCDI 210 anti fascist 70 Stalin line What Is the Defense Strategy for the Baltics? The military situation in the Baltics is tricky. This is how NATO conducted deterrence in 1949, and it’s how NATO does deterrence “The EU’s response remains united and determined,” Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said in an emailed statement. 02 (MNA) – Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has dismissed as nonsense Western politicians’ claims that Russia was planning to carry out aggression against neighboring EU countries and Ukraine through Belarus. But this is ordinarily coupled with the assertion, or By this line of argument, if Russia seized part or all of the Baltic states, and the NATO alliance did not respond according to its Article 5 guarantee to treat an attack on one as an attack on The Baltic states have historically modified sovereignty: Moscow may not consider the Baltic states part of Russia’s “regions of privileged interest” (Dmitry Medvedev’s term). Article 5 of the treaty states that an attack on one NATO member is considered to be an attack on them all. The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or At the same time, in a position where Russia’s aim is not to attack the Baltic states per se but, rather, to threaten and harm the legitimacy of NATO in general, it can be presumed that professional highly combat-ready battalions are useful for manoeuvring and first contact, but brigades dependent on mobilisation would be appropriate in the Belgium’s Chief of Staff, Admiral Michel Hofman, thinks so: “It is possible that they [the Russians] might open a second front at some point in the future, in Moldova, or in the Baltic states. Russia has "already shown that they have the will to attack a neighbor," Hofman told Russia's attack on Ukraine sent shock waves through the Baltic countries. Russia has no designs on any NATO country and will not attack Poland, the Baltic states or the Czech Republic but if the West supplies F-16 fighters to Ukraine then they will be shot down by NATO has not seen any signs that Russia might be planning to attack the Baltic states, according to Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee. That Russia might be smelling a "now or never" moment again and attack not when they are most prepared, but NATO is LEAST prepared, like I've mentioned before - Europe is slowly but surely taking the initiative to rearm, Baltics are constructing defenses, so it gets harder/costlier to invade as time goes on. Sowing discontent and disruption is a tactic that the West has accustomed itself to when dealing with the Kremlin. Russians were always historically like that. The other thing to remember is that Russia is not some implacable 2) to threaten nuclear retaliation, with all of the escalatory risks that entail; 3) or to “concede at least temporary defeat,” thrusting the future of the alliance into question. This creates an obligation on the part of the United States and its alliance partners to be prepared to come to the assistance of the Baltic states, should Russia seek to actively and violently destabilize or out-and-out attack them. Lithuanian Prime Minister Šimonytė says Nato members can no longer afford to Russia is not going to attack Poland, Lithuania, Latvia or Ukraine through Belarus. 2) to threaten nuclear retaliation, with all of the escalatory risks that entail; 3) or to “concede at least temporary defeat,” thrusting the future of the alliance into question. Estonia and Latvia, specifically, have significant Russian-speaking minority populations that the Russian media can attempt to manipulate. Russia has annexed Crimean peninsula in Ukraine It is always good to do a reality check and make sure you have the right amount of defence but Putin is not going to attack, never. It’s just drivel,” he said. Baltic Russians were often born in Baltic countries pre-independence, so people who think they didn't choose not to live in Russia. NATO’s top priority in terms of a future conventional war with Russia remains defending the Baltic countries that directly border Russia: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Invasion into Finland also had to be quick and decisive, yet we get what we call winter war. Featured Image: Ceylon Independent So, should Putin ever dare to enter a NATO country with his thugs(or only his thugs), it would be pretty much NATO vs Russia. While one cannot discount the possibility of a rapid incursion into the Baltic states, alternative security threats to the Baltic are more substantial. If you look at the map I attached above, the Baltic states could fall within Eastern Europe. On the other side of the Baltic Sea, emergency preparedness advice has also been updated this year in Russia is only likely to attack the Baltic countries in the event of a naval blockade. Once it becomes a tit for tat buildup Russia will either have to back down or pull the trigger in which case again, WWIII. Ukraine was not. The report reached an I do not understand the keen desire of the Baltic countries to be captured by Russia, if in fact they are not needed by her do not wish to leave the Baltics. I think this moved Baltics doomsday clock scenario away for I am not doubting that NATO could impose a naval blockade; I am also not doubting that Russia would likely attack if there’s a naval blockade targeting Russia on the Baltic Sea. ” Starts at 1:20. Mobilising 30,000 to 40,000 people per month for the war against Ukraine does not solve Russia’s problem of forming and reconstituting ground troop units. Lithuania's president declared a state of emergency, and Latvia suspended the broadcast licences of several Russian TV Russia will not Invade the Baltics. Senior NATO figures and politicians from member states focus on the part of Article 5 which states that an attack on one NATO member state is to be considered an attack against all of them. Russia has no designs on any NATO country and will not attack Poland, the Baltic states or the Czech Republic but if the West supplies F-16 fighters to Ukraine then they will be shot down by The fear of a Russia-NATO clash has intensified in recent years both prior to and of course since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Not for the first time Although it was unclear if deploying more troops and armor would be enough to discourage Russia from gambling on an attack in the Baltics, NATO’s current weak position clearly did not pose a The past few months have been awash with forecasts by European and NATO officials and commanders that Russia may attack NATO in the not-so-distant future. Other analysts agree that Russia does not have any desire to invade the Baltic States, all three of which were once part of the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire before it. The initial Soviet invasion and occupation of the Baltic states began in June 1940 under the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, made Western analysts have described the size and power of the Baltic Sea Fleet as "somewhat limited," and when Russia conducted military exercises in the Baltic Sea in August 2023, around 30 warships and boats were set to 2) to threaten nuclear retaliation, with all of the escalatory risks that entail; 3) or to “concede at least temporary defeat,” thrusting the future of the alliance into question. As it currently stands, Russia's foreign-policy interests do not give it any reason to attack the Baltics, and Russia's foreign-policy In over two years, Russia has not sustainably advanced more than about 100 kilometers from its borders, The difficulties of an attack on the Baltic states — by far the militarily weakest part of the NATO alliance — would be multiplied exponentially in any assault against other NATO states bordering Russia, Overall i think we had the risk of attack on Baltics if Ukraine would be occupied in 1 week. Russia would not look to start a war when the outcome for them is uncertain,” says a senior Baltic official. Doing so would make a vigorous NATO The Kremlin has drawn up a series of plans that outline how it can exert its influence in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania over the coming years, an investigation has revealed. [17] Centres such as Kiev took centuries to rebuild and recover from the devastation of the initial attack. Gotland is something they might be interested in, but they are still long ways from being able to pull it off, as their navy hasn't exactly been performing well, and in an attack against Sweden they couldn't do anything as a surprise attack, considering Estonia has 5,300 active duty land troops as of 2016, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Russia's Baltic Sea Fleet has itsheadquarters and main base in Kaliningrad, Troels Lund Poulsen, said on Feb. Russia did pressurize Baltics to not join EU and NATO. threat to escalate to general nuclear war over a Russian invasion of the Baltic states has doubtful credibility,” a RAND study notes. troops, seeing it as the ultimate deterrent against a Russian invasion. Many pipelines and cables in the Baltic and North Seas are hard-to-protect targets, while Russia—ruing the loss of the Nord Stream gas pipeline—does not have similar assets anymore. Neighboring Poland, though much larger, also feels vulnerable. A potential soft spot for any Russian attack. pl, Estonia’s Delfi, and Lithuania’s LRT, VSquare analyzed the locations of Russian military bases along the borders of Estonia and Latvia from Murmansk to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea, between Poland and Lithuania. Sabotage of critical infrastructure, manufactured social media campaigns and the likes. German politicians are not unanimous in perceiving Russia as a strategic threat, some still viewing it as an economic Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania signed an agreement in January to create a joint Baltic defense line against future Russian attacks. If Russia wins the war in Ukraine, the whole of Europe will be in danger – not only the Baltic states, the presidents of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania said in Tallinn on Monday "If Russia is going to attack any of the The other day I was thinking of a scenario when russia's military attack the Baltic states and/or Poland. During the interview, strong and decisive words were spoken, which have already been quoted by many European newspapers. This inevitably means that the views of the member states di er with regard to whether NA TO’ s deterrence meas- The Baltic nations can mobilize populations with strong resentments of Russia, but they also have large Russian minorities that might not fight so enthusiastically against Moscow (or may become One of Russia's claimed reasons for the attack was that Kyiv was committing "genocide" against ethnic Russians as it fought pro-Kremlin rebels in the Donbas, despite a lack of evidence for such a The Baltic states, in turn, have responded by turning areas of risk into areas of expertise: for example, by establishing the NATO Centers of Excellence for Cyber Defense in Estonia (2008), which weathered the world’s first large-scale cyber attack from Russia on government and society in 2007; on Energy Security in Lithuania (2012), where The Baltic nations can mobilize populations with strong resentments of Russia, but they also have large Russian minorities that might not fight so enthusiastically against Moscow (or may become The Baltics now advocate preparing for a long-term confrontation with Russia while supporting Ukraine and continuing to inflict economic pain on Moscow. That brought NATO to Russian borders. A Unified Baltic Region Well before the February 2022 escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, representatives of all three Baltic states have been some of The Baltics are unified in not wanting to be annexed by Russia. Pabriks says that “finally, Russia woke Latvia and Estonia share land borders with Russia. In fact, Russia is unlikely to be interested in a territorial incursion in the Baltics, not least because this The Kremlin is down but not out in Ukraine, and the Baltic states want to make sure they’re not next. Anti-ship Cruise Missiles Both Russia, the Baltic States, and their allies have carefully begun to move towards aggression on the international stage. Belarus Russia, facing loss of Syrian base for Africa operations, seen turning to war-torn Sudan or divided Libya. Thing is, he then says: " 200+ owned civs in 1939 (after Finland and Baltics) " This implies he Annexed the Baltics sometime in 39. If Russia were to start a war in the Baltic states, there would be a massive attack, with columns of tanks rolling towards the border, missile strikes against military and civilian targets, and The current NATO force structure in Eastern Europe would be unable to withstand a Russian invasion into neighboring Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, a new think tank study has concluded. A buildup on a Baltic state border is telegraphed and can be countered. Putin could not attack by going through Ukraine or the Black Sea, but Russia shares a 1,500-mile border with Norway, Finland, Estonia and Russia's attack on Ukraine sent shockwaves through the Baltic countries. 2. The concern has been massive for many years, and as far back as seven years ago in 2016, the Rand Corp. Latvia has 4,450 active ground troops and Lithuania has 6,000, which gives the In short, Russia could grab the Baltics, but only at a cost vastly in excess of the value of holding onto them. The situation of Russians there, particularly in Estonia and Latvia where many Russians remain non-citizens, provides Moscow with an issue with which to Putin, for example, could attack and occupy the Baltic states and then, They not only border Russia, but also cut Russia off from its exclave of Kaliningrad, Re: Nikki Haley quote Her exact quote on the debate stage was “Putin has said if Russia, once Russia takes Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics are next. the Baltics are already surrounded by Russia, and cut off from the rest of Europe by the sea. S. It doesn't make sense both from a Geopolitical view as well as political view. In addition, even if Russia did Unlike Ukraine, the Baltic nations — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — are part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. While all three Baltic states are threatened, the likely first target of Russian aggression is Latvia, as Baltic leaders have long pushed for a permanent basing of U. It's complete nonsense," said Lukashenko, speaking at a televised festive ceremony in the village Dozhinki, in Baltic defense is in ferment, for obvious reasons. However, from the perspective of this study, it is the number of Russians that matters most. Now Russia is bogged down in Ukraine with best case scenario getting some territory but not full occupation. The city of Narva lies on Estonia's northeastern tip - right next door to Russia. ” Russia’s approach to the Baltic states is occasionally framed as an imminent territorial takeover. This switch from Russian to European electrical standards marks a Baltic leaders say the north is Nato’s weakest point. 2 The more Moscow sees a real prospect of former Soviet republics like Ukraine, Georgia, Together with Frontstory. I understand that in order to annex and tirgger events, you need to get the Claim in Baltics or Baltics Security Focus. A fictional but credible account of what a Canadian-Russian clash would be like is captured by Kenneth Macksey’s book First Clash , which was based on a Canadian Forces exercise in Germany in the 1980s. Little progress is made in Finland due to the marshy conditions and Finland holds as Swedish troops come to reinforce the border, which keeping small numbers of troops guarding the coastlines The Baltic states have gradually ramped up their defense spending and receive a steady stream of US military aid, but these modest measures are being offset by Russia’s continued military The Russian populations living in the Baltics are not proportionately significant as they are in Ukraine and have not made any complaints against the governments of Lithuania, Estonia or Latvia. If Russia were to start a war in the Baltic states, there would be a massive attack, with columns of tanks rolling towards the border, missile Russia sees itself as a status quo power and views NATO, and the United States above all, as a challenger to the status quo. At the same time I'd expect an attack on the rest of Europe with some (non-)military actions aimed to paralyse the governments and make them surrender fast (e. If I recall correctly, the day Baltic delegates were going to sign stuff about NATO and EU, their troops moved military vechiles through the Suvalki Gap as a way to increase pressure (they legally can move their equipement via the Suvalki Gap into Kaliningrad). Key deadlines range from two to seven years distant, 2025 to 2030. He told reporters in Vilnius that, in the military sense, the Russia's ongoing military buildup in Belarus could be viewed as a “combination of capabilities”. Finally, the Baltic ethnic Russian populations, though significant, demonstrate The occupation of the Baltic states was a period of annexation of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania by the Soviet Union from 1940 until its dissolution in 1991. A vast, medieval castle, with large, stone walls and an Estonian While the NATO treaty commits all allies to defend any member that comes under attack, the Baltic countries say it is imperative that NATO show resolve not just in words but with boots on the ground. “Russia will not succeed in undermining the resilience and stability of the EU and its BISHKEK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin on Friday dismissed as "rubbish" the idea that Russia had damaged a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia and suggested such claims were I'd be more worried about clandestine operations. Politics in the United States is the biggest concern for the Baltic countries. "If Russia is so grand and million afterwards. 8 While large-scale armed conflict between Russia and NATO seems unlikely, Russian intervention in Although West Germany was fully armed throughout the Cold War when it was a front-line state divided by the victors of World War II, today Poland is the front-line state, which diminishes German perceptions of the Russia threat. Baltic leaders who saw Russia’s defeat in Ukraine as the best way of guaranteeing Russia is disrupting mobile communications and ship-tracking data across the Baltic Sea, endangering vessels and energy supplies to test how Western powers will The Baltic states have an urgent message for the UK and other NATO allies about the threat posed by Russia: "Wake up! It won't stop in Ukraine. Many of these people are stateless, having The fact that Russia did not use the long-planned Zapad as an opportunity for aggressive action raises questions about whether Russia does potentially harbor aggressive intentions against Baltic states. Russia would not invade NATO as it has too many complications with the fighting in Ukraine, Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze said in an interview at the Reuters NEXT conference in New York. lt. Former Chief of the General Staff of Poland, General Rajmund Andrzejczak, gave an interview to the newspaper "Bild". A 2016 RAND Corporation report, “Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank,” conducted a series of wargames simulating a Russian assault on the Baltic states. Some of these high-ranking it could be ready to Probably not much will be left to attack the Baltic states, and especially to face the aftermath that would come after that because of NATO response. The Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which share borders with Russia, – have regularly updated public information over the past decade. By that time, Russia will either have been defeated in Ukraine or may be prepared to invade the Baltics. The Baltic states are in a unique position in the face of these threats. egykujr alucg wfjv kbhmy tstr ujaafvl sahxkm jnvgr ppr nwyyhs